One Of Canada’s Biggest Real Estate Bulls Isn’t So Bullish On Condos
07 Jan 2021
One of Canada’s largest real estate brokerages is bullish on real estate this year, just not condos. Royal LePage released its annual price forecast showing slower, but still big, price growth in 2021. There was one notable exception – condo apartments. They expect prices to rise, but they also expect them to lag the market. Toronto condos aren’t even expected to beat inflation.
Canadian Condo Prices Forecast To Grow At Half The Rate
Canadian condo apartment prices are forecast to gain next year, but underperform. The brokerage forecasts that a typical condo in Canada will cost $522,700 in 2021, up 2.25% from the year before. This is about half the growth they’ve forecast for the total of all home types. This is much slower than usual for condo apartments, especially with the recent boom.
Royal LePage Canadian Condo 2021 Price Forecast
The forecasted percent change in prices for condo apartments in 2021.
| Region | Change |
|---|---|
| Ottawa | 7.5 |
| Halifax | 7 |
| Montreal | 3.75 |
| Vancouver | 3.5 |
| Canada | 2.25 |
| Regina | 1.5 |
| Winnipeg | 1.25 |
| Edmonton | 1 |
| Toronto | 0.5 |
| Calgary | -1 |
Source: Royal LePage, Better Dwelling.
Toronto Condo Prices Forecast To Almost Be Flat
Greater Toronto condo apartments are expected to underperform national price growth. The brokerage is forecasting prices will reach $600,800 in 2021, up just 0.50% from last year. This is less than a tenth of the 5.75% forecasted increase for Toronto’s aggregate market. A big change for Canada’s largest condo markets, which was thought to be unbeatable just a year ago.
Vancouver Condo Prices Are Expected To Rise Over 3%
Greater Vancouver condo apartments are expected to outperform the general market. The brokerage is forecasting a price of $684,300 in 2021, up 3.50% from 2020’s estimated finish. This is almost a third of the 9.00% forecast for the region’s aggregate. It’s slow for Vancouver, but still outperforms the national forecast. The brokerage’s ambitious outlook for Vancouver was an unusual outlier amongst Vancouver forecasts.
Montreal Condo Prices Expected To Rise Over 3%
Greater Montreal condo apartments are expected to beat national performance as well. The brokerage is forecasting a price of $382,600 in 2021, up 3.75% from 2020’s estimated finish. This is just over half of the 6.00% gain projected for the region’s total market. Better than Toronto or Vancouver, but still much slower than last year.
Ottawa And Halifax Condo Markets Expected To Lead The Country
Two of Canada’s smaller cities are expected to lead condo apartment price growth. Ottawa condos are forecast to make the biggest gains with prices reaching $417,900 in 2021, up 7.50% from last year. Halifax follows with a forecast of $322,300, up 7.00% over the same period. Very large gains, but once again, not exactly the size seen over the past few years.
Canada’s real estate markets are forecast to see price growth slow this year across all segments. The brokerage cited a popular observation – people are moving away from city centers. They observed this trend before the pandemic, but it was accelerated by low rates and work from home adoption. This trend also takes people away from prime condo markets, and mostly puts them in other home types. Not many condo apartment towers in cottage country. Yet at least.
